Slower Sales Forecast For Holiday Season

Holiday retail sales in the U.S. are likely to increase between one and 1.5 per cent, says Deloitte in its annual holiday retail forecast. Overall, Deloitte’s retail and distribution team projects that holiday spending will result in sales between $1,147 billion and $1,152 billion during the November-January timeframe. The firm also forecasts that eCommerce sales will grow by 25 per cent to 35 per cent, year-over-year, during the 2020-2021 holiday season, compared to sales increasing by 14.7 per cent in 2019. eCommerce holiday sales are expected to generate between $182 billion and $196 billion this season. The upcoming holiday retail season will be marked by unparalleled uncertainty, it says. Holiday sales will play out in one of two possible scenarios this season, a relatively stable year-over-year sales increase (zero per cent to one per cent) or a more significant jump (2.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent), both of which are lower than in years past and will be driven by a K-shaped recovery. The formal forecast increase (between one per cent and 1.5 per cent) is a result of melding both scenarios.